War of Peaces: A piece on warring semantics

"I pray for peace in Ukraine" is what I would have written if I was(were?) a religious person. I strive for peace, I long for peace in Ukraine. I feel a slight shake in my elbows, a thump in my stomach, a twist in my guts when I think about how strongly I want the bloodshed in Ukraine to end (for all the personal reasons explained in another post). That's the closest I can get to "praying for peace in Ukraine".

On a semantic level, however, the phrase "peace in Ukraine", without further context, is meaningless. There are two peace narratives at war here and a middle ground is no longer available. At best, "praying for peace" may mean a return to the pre-war conditions, which at this advanced stage of the conflict, is also no longer an option, in my humble opinion. Thus, wanting "peace in Ukraine" in the abstract, without choosing between one of the two warring peace narratives, has now zero semantic content - you may mean by this "A" and its complete opposite "Ā" at the very same time. 

Let me elaborate on this. 

There are two peace narratives, two incompatible world views, at war over Ukraine. According to Putin's narrative, peace is disturbed by an aggressive alliance of Western forces whose ultimate goal is to suppress and rule over Russia. The western aggression can only be stopped by toppling the gang of neonazis and drug addicts, placed in Kiev by NATO as part of its plan to attack Russia. 

"Peace" in this narrative means regime change in Ukraine, placing in charge leaders that are not NATO puppets, perhaps also separating the country in two (or more) autonomous entities, with only nominal federal structure on top (the Bosnia-Herzegovina model). "Peace" also means a return of Europe's geopolitical map to the mid-1990s, prior to NATO's expansion east.

This narrative dominates in Russia. It also finds kind ears in many other countries. 

It appeals to people believing that a cabal of bankers and more broadly capitalists control the global means of production. Through their mainstream media, they subtly suppress the ordinary people (or "sheeple") into wanting to maintain this system and embrace its consumerism, despite its internal contradictions, deep unfairness, and exploitation of the masses. The expansion of this system east is an adverse development that should be resisted. This narrative finds kind ears among people that could be schematically categorised as "far-left".

The Putin's peace narrative also finds kind ears among "far-right" and conservative, "hard-right" audiences. In this worldview, we are at a culture war with existential repercussions. Liberals, gays, and somehow Muslims, (even Jews, in certain variants) have conspired to topple the nobble white or Christian race. They have conspired to change the traditional way of life in Europe and the "Anglo-Saxon" world. To undermine traditional families and make our children gay or trance, to make them hippies, drug addicts, snowflakes. Brave leaders, like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, are superheroes fighting the endgame in this battle.

In the above far-left, far-right, and hard-right worldviews, Putin withdrawing his forces from Ukraine would not bring peace. It would be a defeat, a retreat, in a broader, more significant conflict. 

This is not the peace that they are praying for.

The alternative peace narrative comes from a completely opposite worldview. It's the mainstream view of the "West" functioning as an, albeit imperfect, liberal democracy. 

In this worldview, the social and political system does harbour inefficiencies and imperfections but they come from objective differences in a complex and dynamic reality, not from a ruling class suppressing the masses. Meaningful changes, in this worldview, can be achieved and are achieved through a deliberative process within a civil and civic society, not with violent revolutions or heavy-handed leadership (i.e. authoritarian or totalitarian dictatorships). 

In this, the liberal worldview, Putin's regime is a source of evil. The media he controls churns poisonous propaganda. His army of hackers and trolls have propped if not even caused, enormously disruptive events, such as the election of Donald Trump as the US president, the radicalisation of the GOP and the exit of the UK from the EU. He has bankrolled neonazi and far-left groups across Europe, poisoning the democratic process and weakening cohesion all across Europe.

Peace, under this worldview, can only be achieved if Putin withdraws his forces from Ukraine and somehow stops his interference in world affairs. The best-case scenario here is that Putin loses his grip on power and Russia joins the free world.

Finally, "praying for peace" may mean "praying for a ceasefire". Praying that all sides put the guns down and resolve their difference through negotiations and dialogue. 

This is always the preferable way of resolving conflict. 

However, the conflict in Ukraine is not about controlling a certain resource. It does not come from historic tensions that have culminated beyond a breaking point. Tensions that could be eased through a reconciliation mechanism, following a ceasefire. Its roots are much more global and fundamental, running deep into our cognitive narratives and worldviews. 

Even if a ceasefire is somehow reached, this will not resolve the underlying conflict. The underlying conflict has reached such a crescendo that only a radical change in the balance of power between the two sides can give us a new equilibrium. We cannot go back to the world we had just 4 days ago. So "praying for a ceasefire" no longer means "praying for peace", at the point we're at in Ukraine. 

This is why "praying for peace" is now a meaningless phrase, if further context is not provided. Peace may mean exact opposites now or at best a utopian goal. Choosing sides, not between countries or nations, but between warring worldviews, is a logical, a semantic necessity.

Some family history and the absurdity of Putin's invasion in Ukraine

History is being forged these days the old-fashioned way. With artillery shells flying overhead. With tanks stamping over soil already soaked with blood from centuries of conflict. With old-fashioned, non-cyber, heavy-machinery war.

When history is being forged the old ways, thousands are killed, thousands lose loved ones, thousands are traumatised for their entire life, on all sides of a war. But this post is mainly about the opposite - how LIFE was forged out of historic events over the very same territory. 

The life of my mother.

My grandfather was a Russian soldier in the Red Army, stationed in Ukraine at the start of WWII.* As Hitler's army progressed swiftly, slaughtering and burning through entire villages, my grandfather was captured, alongside thousands of others. He then managed to escape the POW camp. 

His life was saved by a Ukrainian family. He hid in their rural home for a number of years. As you undoubtedly have guessed already, my grandmother was a member of that Ukrainian family. This is how war and hardship led to a love story and a family of seven (six if we don't count an uncle of mine that died in a tragic incident as a teenager).

My grandfather continued to hide even after the end of the German occupation. Stalin had given an order that no Russian soldier should allow himself to be captured alive. Staying alive as POW implied collaboration with the enemy and was punishable with death for treason. After the end of the war, the young family migrated to Kirgizia (now Kirgizstan). They returned to Ukraine in the late 1950s, following the death of Stalin and the regime's renouncement of his crimes.

Even though most of her life she spent in Bulgaria, home for my mother was always Yasinovataya, about 25 km north of the center of Donetsk. Despite having lived in Russia only during her university years, she was fanatically Russian. Never spoke to us a word of Bulgarian or any language other than Russian. During the last couple of decades of her life, watching Russian TV was how she spent most of her time. Putin for her was a superhero. She died in November 2020. 

Relatives tell me that the family home in Yasinovataya has already been destroyed. The truth is, war has been going on in these places already since 2014. A different war. Hybrid war, with little green men, cyber-attacks, TV crews, etc. But war with casualties and destroyed property, nevertheless. Now, we are having an old-fashioned war, with thousands of troops, lots of artillery, insignia and all.

Ordinary lives should not be forged by history. History should not be forged by war. 

Let's hope that Putin's absurd attempt to forge history the old-fashioned way fails. Let's hope that as little as possible further blood is spilled on the already oversaturated black soil of Ukraine. Let's all do what's in our hands to prevent further bloodshed in order to redraw state borders, in Ukraine, or anywhere else, for that matter. 

My deep sympathy and sorrow go to friends, family and everyone else that might get involved on either side of this totally absurd conflict.

* This is a piece of oral history, past across generations, so I don't vouch that the details are 100% correct. But the details are of little importance in this story.

Originally posted on Facebook on 24/02/2022.

Today is a crucial day for the future of democracy in the world

For any liberally minded person, the events in Ukraine are deeply disturbing. However, these very same events may lead to a new dawn for democracy and liberalism in the world. Which way democracy will go depend crucially on what will happen today and perhaps in the next 2-3 days.

Let me explain.

Russian troops are approaching the capital of Ukraine. By the end of the day, they might have taken over the country's major government buildings, instituting a puppet regime, loyal to Putin's kleptocracy. However, if they fail, the pendulum will swiftly swing in the other direction, greatly weakening and probably even toppling Putin's regime.

This is not a war between two nations. As a descendent of both Ukrainian and Russian grandparents, I can assure you that the two peoples have no deep-rooted hostility that may substantiate such bloodshed. There are no religious or cultural divides. No events running deep in history that may be kindling the desire of Russians and Ukrainians to want to gut each other. 

Even Putin's propaganda - it is not aimed at demonising the Ukrainians. According to Putin's regime, Ukraine, with the help of the West, is taken over by neonazies. Supposedly, they suppress Russian identity in Eastern Ukraine and provide a platform for NATO to attack Russia. The enemy is the West and their agents in the country's leadership, not the Ukrainians, who are themselves oppressed and impoverished by their government.

This is not a war between two nations. This is a war between Putin's regime and democracy. 

The future of Putin's regime is bleak. It functions by allocating proceeds from energy and other commodity exports among a kleptocratic elite. Decarbonisation significantly reduces Kremlin's levers of power. Cutting off the country's oligarchy from the world's export and financial markets speeds this up. 

In not that many years, the current kleptocratic model in Russia will collapse. This is the last chance for the regime to use its leverage over EU industry, population and political elite, in order to strengthen its positions internally.

Putin's gamble in Ukraine is a desperate move. Its success depends crucially on how fast he gains control over Ukraine. The plan, the hope was that Ukraine will surrender without fighting. 

Every hour that passes, every bombed block of flats, every fallen plane, every body-bag that comes back to the towns and villages of Russia makes Putin's propaganda machine very difficult to keep from falling apart. No abstract threat from NATO, no alleged harassment from neonazis can substantiate to the ordinary Russians the death of thousands of their own people and of the people closest to their heart.

If Kiev stands. If Ukrainians give a tough fight. If the war goes into a stalemate. Putin's regime will fall. 

The staged show with the country's top leaders "advising" Putin to go ahead was his insurance policy against an attack from within. This is a clear indication of the threat felt by Putin even from those very close to him.

Today is a crucial day for the future of democracy, not only in Ukraine but over the globe. Putin's regime has raged a covert war against democracy for more than a decade. Putin's trolls and hackers gave a major boost to the election of Donald Trump and the Brexit outcome in the UK referendum. His regime has bankrolled far-right and far-left parties, movements and politicians that have substantially weakened cohesion within the EU. Without Putin's intervention, Syria, Belarus and many more countries would have been in a very different state now.

If Putin falls, Lukashenko will not last more than a week and Belarus will start a shaky transition to a liberal democracy. Without Putin's regime, the breakaway regions in Moldova and Georgia will lose their backing, which will substantially improve the political conditions in these countries. Armenia would be freer to continue its transition to a genuine democracy. 

Functioning democracy in all Europe and most of Asia would cease to be a utopian dream.

It is crucial for democracy to hold against Putin today. 

The people of Russia should resist the regime. It is a very hard thing to do, but there are many different forms of resistance. Getting kicked at the head for protesting on the street is only one form of resistance. The least risky form is to disbelieve the regime's propaganda and look for independent sources of information. Be strong - Putin's regime is coming to its sad end. If not today, if not this year, sometime thereafter, it is doomed to end, but it is your job to make this happen.

The people of Ukraine should resist the invasion. Defending your land, you defend freedom not only in Ukraine but all over the world, even in Russia. Fight hard, but also remember that the soldiers shooting at you are not your enemy - they are victims of a common enemy - Putin's kleptocratic regime. 

The people of EU should press their leaders to defend democracy. The meek response of the EU leadership gave room to Putin's regime to come to this point. As a EU citizen, I feel strongly responsible for the bloodshed in Ukraine. We should do everything that is in our hands to end Putin's regime. No sanction is too extreme. No economic cost is too high.

In this very dark hour for democracy in the world, the first cracks of a new dawn appear. It is our historic duty to do everything in our hands for this new dawn to come as soon as possible.