Today is a crucial day for the future of democracy in the world

For any liberally minded person, the events in Ukraine are deeply disturbing. However, these very same events may lead to a new dawn for democracy and liberalism in the world. Which way democracy will go depend crucially on what will happen today and perhaps in the next 2-3 days.

Let me explain.

Russian troops are approaching the capital of Ukraine. By the end of the day, they might have taken over the country's major government buildings, instituting a puppet regime, loyal to Putin's kleptocracy. However, if they fail, the pendulum will swiftly swing in the other direction, greatly weakening and probably even toppling Putin's regime.

This is not a war between two nations. As a descendent of both Ukrainian and Russian grandparents, I can assure you that the two peoples have no deep-rooted hostility that may substantiate such bloodshed. There are no religious or cultural divides. No events running deep in history that may be kindling the desire of Russians and Ukrainians to want to gut each other. 

Even Putin's propaganda - it is not aimed at demonising the Ukrainians. According to Putin's regime, Ukraine, with the help of the West, is taken over by neonazies. Supposedly, they suppress Russian identity in Eastern Ukraine and provide a platform for NATO to attack Russia. The enemy is the West and their agents in the country's leadership, not the Ukrainians, who are themselves oppressed and impoverished by their government.

This is not a war between two nations. This is a war between Putin's regime and democracy. 

The future of Putin's regime is bleak. It functions by allocating proceeds from energy and other commodity exports among a kleptocratic elite. Decarbonisation significantly reduces Kremlin's levers of power. Cutting off the country's oligarchy from the world's export and financial markets speeds this up. 

In not that many years, the current kleptocratic model in Russia will collapse. This is the last chance for the regime to use its leverage over EU industry, population and political elite, in order to strengthen its positions internally.

Putin's gamble in Ukraine is a desperate move. Its success depends crucially on how fast he gains control over Ukraine. The plan, the hope was that Ukraine will surrender without fighting. 

Every hour that passes, every bombed block of flats, every fallen plane, every body-bag that comes back to the towns and villages of Russia makes Putin's propaganda machine very difficult to keep from falling apart. No abstract threat from NATO, no alleged harassment from neonazis can substantiate to the ordinary Russians the death of thousands of their own people and of the people closest to their heart.

If Kiev stands. If Ukrainians give a tough fight. If the war goes into a stalemate. Putin's regime will fall. 

The staged show with the country's top leaders "advising" Putin to go ahead was his insurance policy against an attack from within. This is a clear indication of the threat felt by Putin even from those very close to him.

Today is a crucial day for the future of democracy, not only in Ukraine but over the globe. Putin's regime has raged a covert war against democracy for more than a decade. Putin's trolls and hackers gave a major boost to the election of Donald Trump and the Brexit outcome in the UK referendum. His regime has bankrolled far-right and far-left parties, movements and politicians that have substantially weakened cohesion within the EU. Without Putin's intervention, Syria, Belarus and many more countries would have been in a very different state now.

If Putin falls, Lukashenko will not last more than a week and Belarus will start a shaky transition to a liberal democracy. Without Putin's regime, the breakaway regions in Moldova and Georgia will lose their backing, which will substantially improve the political conditions in these countries. Armenia would be freer to continue its transition to a genuine democracy. 

Functioning democracy in all Europe and most of Asia would cease to be a utopian dream.

It is crucial for democracy to hold against Putin today. 

The people of Russia should resist the regime. It is a very hard thing to do, but there are many different forms of resistance. Getting kicked at the head for protesting on the street is only one form of resistance. The least risky form is to disbelieve the regime's propaganda and look for independent sources of information. Be strong - Putin's regime is coming to its sad end. If not today, if not this year, sometime thereafter, it is doomed to end, but it is your job to make this happen.

The people of Ukraine should resist the invasion. Defending your land, you defend freedom not only in Ukraine but all over the world, even in Russia. Fight hard, but also remember that the soldiers shooting at you are not your enemy - they are victims of a common enemy - Putin's kleptocratic regime. 

The people of EU should press their leaders to defend democracy. The meek response of the EU leadership gave room to Putin's regime to come to this point. As a EU citizen, I feel strongly responsible for the bloodshed in Ukraine. We should do everything that is in our hands to end Putin's regime. No sanction is too extreme. No economic cost is too high.

In this very dark hour for democracy in the world, the first cracks of a new dawn appear. It is our historic duty to do everything in our hands for this new dawn to come as soon as possible.