Russia will be free

Russia will become a free and democratic country.

As free and as democratic as any other in the EU. Freer and more democratic than some of the others on the continent.

This is a prediction that runs counter to trends. Counter to recent events. But exactly these events freed me from any doubts about the future of Russia as a free and democratic country.
The murder of Navalny (whichever way it happened, the slow or the sudden) is a seismic event. The shock that it created through the healthy liberal segment of Russian society is commensurable to the shock from the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Navalny was, is, has become Russia's Martin Luther King. Russia's Mandela. Russia's Ghandi. A beacon that guides moral sentiment. A sacrifice that clears the path. A myth.

The deep sorrow, genuine anguish that has rippled through liberal Russia is gradually turning to resolve. The seeds for new Navalnys, new Nemtsovs have been planted.

The new Navalnys and Nemtsovs will turn Mordor into a free and prosperous country.

I cannot predict the chronology or sequence of events that will lead to this outcome.

Will there be a Russia Spring in March-April this year? A military coup in December? A widespread rebellion on the frontlines in the summer of 2025? A breakout republic declaring independence in the winter of 2026? Infights of siloviki fractions turning to a full-blown civil war following Putin's death in 2048?

I don't know. No one does.

But the little Russianhood left in me tells me that I can be certain of the final outcome, whenever it will come.

The current regime is ruling purely based on "might is right". There is no ideology behind its repressions.

Yes, the majority of Russia's society is zombied into conspiratorial thinking. Yes, the silovikis' grip on power is only getting stronger. But there is no coherent narrative that grabs hearts and minds.

No one will charge enemy lines because of some 11th-century bullshit. No one will fight an overwhelming crowd of angry protesters to prevent gender-neutral public toilets.

Once the oil money, fuelling the war, repression, suppression, and propaganda machines, dries out. Once it becomes clear that the power of Putin's cronies is wavering. The floodgates of anger will open and the regime will collapse. In a single day.

The Soviet generation will not live forever.

The time will come when the generations of Navalny, Yashin, and even younger bright people will outnumber the Soviet aparatchicks. The generations watching Rick and Morty, rather than Seventeen Moments of Spring, will eventually prevail.

The first milestone to watch - 17 March.

The results of the so-called elections happening on that date are already known. Decided in advance. At least 80% will vote for Sauron, with at least 70% participation in the polls.

But exactly at noon, in polling stations spread over this vast territory and across numerous time zones, the Rick-and-Morty generations will come together, after a 4-year ban on public demonstrations (due to COVID, supposedly). They will vote for Navalny, spoil the bulletin in another way, or cast a vote for one of the three stooges that the regime put on the ballot alongside ввх. They will do their best to screw up with this mimicry of a democratic process.

No, this will probably not start a revolution. But it will provide an opportunity for liberal Russia to reconfirm its existence. To show its strength and resolve. To spook the aparatchicks, one more time. To draw strength for the next small step on the road to freedom.

I will try to follow these events and channel the vibes here as events unfold (or don't). Stay tuned.