As I write these lines, a very difficult decision is being made in Kyiv. Zelensky's administration is facing a tragic choice.
At a watershed moment in Europe's history, Ukraine's government has to decide between two very bad outcomes, while the clock is ticking and the deadline is just a few hours away.
Zelensky and his team have shown courage and strength, but they are not suicidal. Russia's army has borne heavy losses and the ground offense has stalled, but its airforce still has immense firepower for destruction.
Ceding Crimea and Donbas to Russia would not be a popular decision within Ukraine, but it can be blamed on NATO's passive stance. The removal of the Euroatlantic integration as an officially stated goal would not be that costly, as public opinion in Ukraine is becoming more and more disillusioned with the West.
Under this scenario, Putin would be able to claim that his "special operation" has achieved its goals. They were vague to start with, which helps.
Ukraine recognizing the annexation of Crimea and the independence of the two Donbas regions, with greatly expanded borders, would be celebrated with great fanfare by the state media in Russia. Despite the collapse of the economy and the disgruntlement of the oligarchs, Putin's regime would have consolidated further his grip on power, violently suppressing dissent and blaming everything on the need to fight off Western aggression against the very essence of being Russian.
The alternative of fighting on is going to be very costly, for both sides. Putin has shown that he has enough resolve and control over his war machine to impose enormous pain even on the most Russia-friendly parts of Ukraine. He has managed to convince analysts in the West that he is mad enough to go nuclear.
The probability of a nuclear war is now assessed as high enough to prevent NATO from any active involvement in Ukraine, beyond sending ammunition (but not planes). Fighting on would imply for Ukraine that Kiyv, most probably Kharkiv and perhaps a number of other major and minor Ukrainian cities would be bombed to oblivion, or at least to the point when Ukraine becomes ungovernable and morale breaks.
In a few hours, we will learn whether the war will escalate further to unimaginable levels of bloodshed, with a material risk for a nuclear disaster, or it will fizzle out into a protracted Cold-War confrontation between Russia and the West. Between illiberal Eurasianism and liberal democracy.
Either way, we in the West should be prepared to continue to defend our liberty, our freedoms.
This defence is not going to be easy or costless.
Even if Ukraine capitulates, we have to continue to uphold our liberal values.
It would be tempting to turn a blind eye to Putin's crimes again. To forget Ukraine. To remove sanctions in order to push down prices and prop up domestic consumption and income generation. To sell our moral values cheaply.
We are good at this.
We will soon be tempted to compromise our principles again, for short-term economic gains. But this choice would be disastrous over the longer term.
The current escalation and its decade-long pre-history should have taught us that living in a free society should no longer be taken for granted anywhere in the world. Our liberty is built on institutions that are strong, but not indestructible.
Trump's stunt at the White House did a lot of damage to these institutions, but he ultimately failed in his attempt to overpower them. He may have more luck if he, or another Putinist, has one more go at this, which is not an improbable scenario.
The same holds for the EU as well. The Russian threat has consolidated greatly the union and the strength of the Putinists within the EU has greatly diminished. But time heals. We forget.
We should never forget Ukraine. We should never forget Putin's crimes.
We should continue our struggle for human rights, liberty, democracy, social justice, and solidarity, within our society and across the world.
Not only because it's the right moral choice, but also because it's the economically rational choice. Without our liberty - our wealth, our comforts, our consumption can disappear like a morning fog.
The fight goes on and liberty will eventually prevail. Stay strong!
